Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 8 from 5 users
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
Gachapin
on 24/06/2023, 21:17:47 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (4) ,Biodom (1) ,JayJuanGee (1) ,AlcoHoDL (1) ,OutOfMemory (1)

Actually, the second spot indicated by an X was, indeed, the safest place to enter to achieve the most gains in the shortest period of time.
I remember Willy Woo also posting something along these lines. Granted, it was only about 4-5X, but in a short order and without sudden catastrophic plunges.
It was a great place for a small leverage, too. Sure, you could have bought at 6-7K (indicated by a start of the bull run), but if you did anything else, but a straight cash buy (no leverage), your position would have been eviscerated. We had one glaring example like this here-a mindtrust guy, who became "famous" for an aggressive accumulation between, maybe, 3k and 10K, and then selling all in panic at around 4-4.5K during the Covid crash. You might think that this kind of a sudden plunge would never occur again, and you could be right, but it is unknowable.


For someone looking for a quick gain that was definitely the best point, and the most risk-free.  But it's more obvious in hindsight.
PlanB made some more or less similar trading rules based on the previous cycles:

1)
Trading rule based on S2F model. Buy BTC 6 months before halving and sell 18 month after halving. Outperforms BTC buy&hold in both return and risk....
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1650778260442062848

2)
Quant Investing 101
https://planbtc.com/20220807QuantInvesting101.pdf


But who knows how long we can rely on the previous cycle performance. You never know if next time will be different ....