As an early adopter I don't think halvings and FUD are connected in any way. The "black swan" event normally happens months or even years before halving. Normally, the price right before or after halving has gone up significantly already. I think we have witnessed the lowest point this cycle already.
If we are often at The "black swan" event, surely we don't panic, but that effect does not apply for the weak hand which makes "the often people" sooner or later it will follow that fear, the talkative like this often happens following fud. this ever happened with me last year ago when ftx exchange collapsed which make Bitcoin price dump. Even I know this is the black swan, but I can't not hear screaming fud on everywhere which make me sold also my treasury. I am affected, even I know it will happen.