Forget about risk and when people walk according to the right process, then bitcoin is never a risk to invest. Price fluctuations are just a process of travel and we can avoid when setting long-term investment patterns and that makes everything riskier because someone comes to investing because they don't have knowledge. There are stages that we need to go through to make the investment bigger, the ways and strategies for each person may be different, but in essence, all of us make investments to make a profit, the size of the profit depends on the capital and how much bitcoin assets we have.
It seems that I agree with everything in your post, lizarder.. except I am a wee bit confused by the points that you seem to be making at the beginning of this responsive paragraph.. and you seem to be suggesting that bitcoin does not have any risk so long as you allocate in such a way that is in accordance with your own situation - but still, I am bothered by the idea that bitcoin would not be a risk - even though I agree with the overall idea that the level of risk is largely a matter of allocation levels....
so for example, most of the longer term bitcoiners realize that bitcoin is almost completely a non-correlated asset, even though it sometimes will correlate with various other assets for short (and even seemingly relatively longer periods of time), but the essence of the matter remains that bitcoin is a new kind of a paradigm shifting asset class that is not correlated to existing asset classes, and part of the reason for its not correlation likely is due to its ongoing early stages of adoption that may well take 10 to 150 years or maybe even longer for it to become a mature asset class.
Part of my contention with your suggestion that bitcoin is never a risk, remains any scenario in which bitcoin might go to zero.. or even spiral to zero over 10 or 20 years... which are non-zero possibilities.. even if many of us consider such possibilities of bitcoin going to zero (or spiraling to zero) to be quite low probability situations... maybe in the fractions of a percentage type of assignment of probabilities, like perhaps less than a 0.01% odds or may even lower, though it becomes quite difficult to assign odds when we are getting into sub 1% territories and maybe not even being able to figure out all of the knowns and the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns...and not even saying that I have closely gone through such a process beyond relying on representations from others and also some of my own hunches rather than facts or informed theories/scenarios.