How will you know the pool is being hopped if you don't know how miners are trying maximise their share value? Just look for unusually lucky miners? I think you need to look for a results from first principals or from a good simulation. Otherwise you're in the dark.
You are correct that you cannot just see problems by looking at the pool alone. But by "monitoring the pool" I understand a lot more then just looking at logs or statistics. I mean monitoring the community and how they formulate ideas on how hopping can be done and abused on our payment system.
Running simulations is also a good idea, I'll try to make some time for that next week to see if I missed anything in my initial analysis. But again, since I don't see any evidence of being hoppable, I'll stick to the current setup for now