Last summer's $50 -$100 prices were low relative to adoption. I don't think that's the case now. $500 is more likely ahead of adoption due to speculation.
I still think there will be a speculative bubble mid to late summer (July-Sept timeframe), but only to the $2k to $2.5k range.
I'm thinking along the same lines, although I do think if we get another speculative bubble, we are going to see $3k plus quickly. The amount of people and money paying attention now is much more vast than it was last November.
It is wrong to think that the only factor determining bitcoin price is end-user adoption. It seems much more logical to also include the power of the hashing network and the businesses and enhancements which are in the works - i.e., capital transfer capacity and future adoption capacity. And these are at least an order of magnitude higher now than a year ago.