It still baffles me that people can afford to keep their houses with everything that's going on.. Either prices have to decline or things will go belly up very soon.
People with 2.75-4% mortgages are hanging on due to relatively low monthlies, unless their tax bill skyrocketed.
Maybe you did not exactly answer your own question, in regards to "when will the bottom fall out?" if that might be a fair characterization of your question - but aren't the best times to sell homes in the summer, so the end of this selling season comes in August/September, so might it not be fair to consider that a failure of the housing market (such as a bottom falling out) would be more likely to come after August/September rather than during the peak part of the yearly selling cycle?
Real estate fireworks in September or so? Perhaps by August or September, individual owners are starting to realize that their houses are not moving, so they start to get desperate, in the event that they do not want to get stuck in their property for one more year.. so maybe the bottom starts to fall out in August rather than September or later?
I'm just throwing out random ideas. I don't really claim to know much of anything.See we can agree on a few things.
Say we jump 25 and 25 total of 50 points. Will that crash housing? maybe maybe not.
But if we do 25 points in July and 25 points in Sept then drop 50 points in nov maybe housing starts to boom.
Sooner or later they will pivot. Its fun watching .