In other words, in the scenario without malicious intent, it is rare that someone has actually attempted a double spend because it is extremely unlikely to happen and trying to guess when it might happen is like trying to guess the lottery numbers. Or even less likely.
Yeah probably, and propagation time for blocks has gotten so much quicker in the recent years. There were accidents though, see the article I linked.
And the malicious case, I see it as a fairly high level of conspiracy in addition to having the luck that miner to mine the blocks he needs, so that probability is almost 0 as I see it and it would only be worth trying with large amounts of bitcoins. Even more difficult and unlikely with 2 or 3 confirmations.
If you have a high amount of hashrate, it is totally possible. If not, trying to build on a potentially stale chain would be a giant waste of money. Without a significant amount of hashrate or the network being in your favour, your chances of mining consecutive blocks would be close to zero.