Well, six digits is happening this market cycle without US ETFs. Last cycle high was $69k, I'd expect this cycle to hit ~$150k.

Also I do not get why people think an ETF will suddenly happen just because Blackrock filed for one. Gensler, the head of the SEC, hates bitcoin and crypto and thinks it shouldn't exist, he is suing the exchanges, his one goal is to cause chaos and uncertainty in the market and to try to push the industry out of the country he already essentially pre-rejected the ETF applications by saying there wasn't enough info or whatever, and just yesterday (just in case there was anyone still thinking an ETF was in some way possible) he basically said Coinbase can not be used as an SSA for these ETF applications which is just further proof that Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs which were gonna use Coinbase will not be accepted.

There is zero chance an ETF gets approved while Gensler is in charge, and his term lasts until 2026, so no ETF is happening this market cycle. I could see an ETF happening next market cycle though in like 2027 or 2028 assuming the SEC leadership is unbiased towards Bitcoin/Crypto at that point. So if that happens the positive price effects on an ETF would be seen during the 2028/2029 bull market.



This market cycle ~$150k and definitely no ETF.


Next market cycle, maybe an ETF.
I expect both the news of an ETF getting approved, as well as the actual start of the ETF buying, will both have strong positive effects on the Bitcoin price when it finally does happen in like probably ~5 years. I would expect 5-10 billion dollars to flood into Bitcoin ETFs within a few months or them starting, meanings tens of thousands of Bitcoin being tied up in ETFs (remember, this won't happen until late this decade during next market cycle so if it happens around the current point in the market cycle but next market cycle the price maybe be like $100k-$150k when any of this starts happening). But the indirectly market effect - the market buying up Bitcoin on the news of an ETF - will likely be much bigger than the direct effect of ETF buying.

So let's say a Bitcoin ETF is approved in mid-2027 when the price of Bitcoin is $100k (having come out of the bear market recently like the current market), just the announcement I bet would start a buying spree and probably move the price up tens of thousands of dollars. Then the actual launch of ETFs, along with the indirectly market buying around the launch, might send the price up another $10k or something. In total, I could see the effect of a Bitcoin ETF next market cycle being like a 50% gain over the short term (say from $100k to $150k, or whatever prices it is at at that point). More generally it would probably make general public sentiment toward Bitcoin more positive so I'd say it might move my 2029 bull market prediction from like currently ~$300k up to ~$400k+ with an ETF, especially if we also get sensible US cryptocurrency market regulation next market cycle as well.