I don’t think 4 year cycles will be a thing forever. As the block reward becomes less & less it will have less of an effect but for now the halving in supply of newly mined coins does cause a significant enough supply shock to drive the price up through sufficient demand.

The current block reward is 6.25BTC and then obviously will halve to 3.125BTC in Q2 of 2024. I think we will still have a regular 4 year cycle this time. We should have a parabolic run this time, there is no COVID, China can’t ban us again
A spot ETF is likely to be approved next year which will add fuel to the supply shock caused by the halving. I think we are looking at $200,000 or close to.

The 2028 halving will see the block reward at 1.5625BTC and I would expect maybe that to be the final 4 year cycle. From the 2032 halving the block reward drops below 1BTC so maybe bitcoin will behave like a more mature asset from then, less volatility and a more stable price. Until then though we will be seeing lots of uppity as our friend JJG would say.

Quick prediction time -

2025 cycle high (year after halving) - $180,000 to $250,000
2029 cycle high (year after halving) - $500,000 to $750,000