Blame Philip for my bout of temporary insanity. 


Do I really need to explain my post?

The reason for my post should be seen in context, and philip has frequently repeated his nonsense that bitcoin is likely going to show broken incentives in around 2050/2060 because the mining rewards are going to be so low that miners are not going to want to mine bitcoin and they will be incentivized to mine POW shitcoins such as litecoin and doggie coin.. and saying dumb shit like that.. so I am reinforcing his dumb ideas through my post.

And, in regards to the Ibonds, Philip was hot to trot in terms of recommending those when BTC prices were in the $16k territory. and he spent a few months with passion in regards to Ibonds.. and also he bragged about selling a decent number of BTC below $20k because he was expecting to be able to buy them back in the $12k-ish territory (or alternatively buy Ibonds with some of that money).

People who sold bitcoin for $20k and bought Ibonds in the $16k territory got pretty fucking reckt in the short term, and likely the amount of that reckening is going to continue to compound because sometimes it is not easy to get out of some kinds of trades, including that Ibonds are locked in with a tempting interest rate that does not even begin until nearly a year after purchase, and then to get full returns they need to be held for several years including various penalties for early cash outs.. not exactly liquid in order to get those supposedly high interest rates - under the assumption that the dollar either holds value or does not lose value very quickly during the period that you are locked into that product.

Don't get me wrong, I am not against having some dollar exposure, since we are in the BTC / dollar thread, and so yeah, there likely needs to be some balancing of our BTC holdings so that we are able to buy more BTC with dollars when the BTC price goes down, and perhaps we might want to shave off some dollars when the BTC price goes up in extraordinarily rapid ways.. but there still can be questions regarding how much to sell and/or how much to buy in order to manage our BTC holdings, but selling BTC on the way down (especially at or below $20k - which was also a few thousand below the 200-week moving average at the time) and buying locked-in dollar assets when BTC prices are not ONLY historically at unprecedented low values was not very smart for anyone who has any kind of fucking clue about what bitcoin is.. .or the power of our lord savior kind daddy bitcoin.

I am also not trying to act like I know hardly shit about which way the BTC versus dollar price is going to go in the short term because it can be quite terrifying when BTC prices are going down and then we largely run out of money (dollars) in order to buy more, but the back up practices is likely better to just hold and to fix your cashflow in order to generate some dollars to be able to buy BTC with it when the BTC price is below the 200-week moving average including that in November and December 2022, the BTC price was around 35% below the 200-week moving .. and surely we were likely below the 200 week moving average for more than 6 months if we consider that we first breached it and were floating around it starting in June-ish of 2022.. so those were not exactly normal times to have the BTC price to be that low for that long.. even though some people are kind of thinking of those BTC prices as normal and they were thinking that the BTC price might have gone even lower.. such as down to $12k and some were waiting for sub-$10k BTC prices, which surely I was not considering them to be out of the question, and it became more likely that we could have had visited such low BTC prices once we had already gotten to such low BTC prices that were around $16k for so long.

Right now the 200-week moving average is at about $26,981, so even going below it for any kind of meaningful amount of time (such as more than a couple of weeks) should feel uncomfortable rather than normal, and there are still people who are waiting for BTC prices to reach the lower $20ks, as if that would be a somewhat normal correction (Philip happens to be one of those folks, and maybe he will be correct, but probably his chances are around the same level as they were in November/December 2022 when he was waiting for $12k-ish BTC prices).