After yesterday's defeat by Caruana, Nepomniachtchi is 1.5 points ahead and now it is almost guaranteed to win the tournament - there has never been a case in the history of chess when the leader did not win the Candidates Tournament with a 1.5 point advantage. Quotes bookmakers, by the way, are very generous:

Win in tournament Yes No

Nepomniachtchi Jan 1.22 3.80
Nakamura X 4.70 1.15
Ding Liren 10.00 1.03
Caruana F 10.00 1.03