Interesting. to be honest, it never crossed my mind to think like you said in this post. but if you want to calculate profits and losses, the simplest theory is, don't gamble. thus, you don't have to bother thinking in detail about cause and effect in long-term sports betting. conversely, how about gambling betting which is purely luck-based. isn't it the same, that in the end we will lose to the long term concept. even so, I really appreciate what you have to say in this thread for us to discuss.

For me, the theory you convey is too complicated for these calculations. ideally, in gambling we have many methods of betting. the odds don't just stick to 1×2, there are even many other choices and so on, for example. can bet on the asian handicap option, both teams to score and many more options. although in theory, basically everything has the same risk.
well, for me, betting on football is the betting that I like the most. plus, I really like football. what we do, not place a bet on guesswork. everything has rules, and we have to work around them with the knowledge and insight we have. betting is not only on the superior team, or choosing the Underdog team. everything is always through research, analysis. and for sure, we know very well, what we are doing. I mean, get to know more about the sport itself. thus, you will know what you are doing. the most important point for me football or sports betting is part of the hobby, that's why I enjoy every moment of it, it's that simple.