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In Bitcoin investment, one doesn't lose anything unless you sell so cheaply. So, even after buying Bitcoin and holding it in your wallet, it doesn't mean you will lose your asset if the price falls below what you paid for it. I gave an example of my friend last year who was waiting for the Bitcoin price to fall to $10k–$12k before he could purchase it because he also believed that the price would drop more, but he was unlucky because Bitcoin did not drop below what he expected and he ended up buying Bitcoin at $20k+ just this year, while he had the opportunity to buy Bitcoin last year when the price was still below $20k.
And same like your friend there are so many like him who are aslo expecting the price to fall back at 24-26k before they actually buy because they feel and act greedy by thinking that if they buy it at the actually price now they would be at the loss but like you said no one knows how the price is going to be and hopefully the price might go down as they speculate but the chances of that happening is also two sided because the price rate can either continue to pump leaving you to either procrastinate more or buy at an even higher price. Sometimes most newbie who are eager to buy after acquiring little knowledge on bitcoin investment are the ones who are mostly victims to such actions.
When buying Bitcoin we always wait for a price that is slightly below the current price. That is, if the price of Bitcoin is $10K at the moment, then we will think that the price of Bitcoin may go down further, that is, thinking like this, many people could not buy Bitcoin until now. It wasn't long before Bitcoin hit $16K. Those who couldn't invest at that time hopefully won't be able to invest in Bitcoin today.
Opportunities don't always come and you don't always have to wait for opportunities, you have to create them yourself. Those who risked investing in Bitcoin after the price of Bitcoin reached $16K are successful today, but those who were waiting for the market to fall further are still waiting for an opportunity. So those who want to invest, make a little courage in your mind and definitely invest with risk. I hope you will not be cheated by investing.