Real Madrid will definitely need a suitable replacement for Benzema if they want to be La Liga champions next season. Without a suitable replacement for Benzema, Real Madrid's chances of winning La Liga are very low. Because Barcelona are in very good form. Xavi is trying to strengthen his team this season. On the other hand, the Real Madrid team has become weaker after losing Benzema. Despite having talented players like Vini, Rodrygo and Joselu in the squad, Real Madrid need a stronger attack if they want to stay in the title race with Barcelona. Barcelona will probably dominate La Liga next season if Mbappe is not included in the squad.
When talking about chances, we actually still don't know Real Madrid performance in new season. Maybe they have small chances as you say but maybe not, because Real Madrid can make surprise anyway. But yeah Real Madrid lacks a centre forward at there now is only Joselu, reportedly if Mbappe can't join with Real Madrid then they will sign Dusan Vlahovic, if this rumours are true so then there are two players in that position of centre forward. And maybe their chance to win La Liga will open up.