All things you said above look like you are pointing to solo mining, all calculators out there are not for solo mining and it is not so accurate. If you are a solo miner you can get the whole block reward which is around 6.25 but if you are mining on the pool there are a few types of payment methods how the pool pays you to mine on their pool like PPS(fixed rate), PPS+ and PPLNS.
If you want to know more about how they work then check this
Mining pool payment methodsAnd I'd like to add this calculator which includes break-even analysis for long-term projection.
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https://www.mycryptobuddy.com/BitcoinMiningCalculatorSo to confirm these calculators assume you are running in a pool? But in this case the calculators must assume that the pool will win a certain percentage of the block rewards right? How would they even begin to guess what that percentage would be?