Mark Twain said: “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” This applies to technical analysis and fundamental triggers in the charts. You can't depend on repeating patterns, even if it would be obvious, when enough people are spotting them, the outcome changes as the event is already priced in as so many people were preparing for it, there were no one left to buy, only to dump their bags in disappointment.

This is why bitcoin halving doesn't necessarily have as much effect to the price it used to. I am hoping i am wrong but i have my doubts about the high price speculations.