There's really no way that I can disagree with your assessment that you personally came into bitcoin from more of a techie kind of angle than the way that I ended up coming into bitcoin, and it seems that I pushed back a little harder on Odohu's assertion partially because he seemed to be assuming that the tech-minded folks had advantages in terms of their both getting into bitcoin early and that they would have more readily understood bitcoin in a better kind of way that gave them conviction to mostly HODL rather than overly selling too many coins too soon.



I would suggest not to get your expectations up too high.  Sure, it is good to consider upside scenarios, but we also should consider both downside and flat scenarios, and it seems to be an unhealthy perspective to consider $29k as if it was "overly suppressed" or some other kind of sentiment like that, even if there might be some truth to it.

Sure, we might be arguing somewhat about semantics because I am likely of a pretty similar conclusion to you in regards to the BTC price being low in light of historical context and in terms of the 200-week moving average, but that does not cause me to take for granted that the next likely step is UP rather than down or sideways.

So surely another way of framing any question regarding where we are at versus where we might be going is to attempt to put bitcoin in a kind of framework while still considering UP as one of the possible directions, but even if you might assign higher odds to up rather than down or sideways, that does not even mean that the higher odds will happen.

So let's say that you assign your odds as follows:  40% up  / 28%  down  and / 32% sideways.. so even if you assign the highest of odds to UPpity, you cannot assume those others to be zero or even lower than they actually are.

Sure, you might come up with different numbers than me.. and sure let's give it a timeframe of within the next year, so we should have both time and price... so what are you going to do?  Are you going to refuse to assign values to the other possible scenarios or just talk about them as if they are zero just because they are lower than what you believe to be the more likely scenario?  whether you are correct or not, that's likely even another question.


One of the ironies in the situation seems to be a bit of a surprise from some folks in regards to the number of BTC that Luke had when he was seeming to continuously pleading poverty, and I am not even suggesting that he was misleading anyone since he is a kind of well known developer who has contributed quite a bit... and so sure, maybe there going to be some seeming contradictions in some situations when some facts might come to be known that seem to conflict with other previously asserted (or maybe previously assumed) facts.


There are probably some forum threads on the topic.. it seems that I might even be following some of them.. .but I had not seen anything posted recently..

I did a quick google search on the topic, and if you are interested in more then at least this article will give you something to springboard off of..

https://decrypt.co/118231/bitcoin-core-dev-loses-at-least-3-6-million-btc-to-hack 

Some have blamed him for being too arrogant in terms of some of the more basic wallets would have likely given him better security than his own seemingly make-shift systems... and surely he is not being criticized in regards to his technical skills prowess, but there have been assertions that there is some value in terms of various open-source systems receiving more scrutiny than some systems that we might create for ourselves and then not be able to adequately see their vulnerabilities well enough in order to protect ourselves from such vulnerabilities.


Personally, I have doubts about any kind of rush to necessarily learn things that you might not have the time and/or energies to learn, and sure if you have some chances to learn more technical aspects of bitcoin, then surely there is nothing wrong with that.... but I would not necessarily conclude that it is healthy to get too focused on the trees and thereby end up losing sight of the forest - because their are a whole lot of angles to bitcoin and there are a whole lot of people who still can value greatly from bitcoin without learning how to code or whatever you might speculate to be some kind of a technical barrier and/or handicap that you might have.

Sometimes, I do look to some of the techies to help me to figure out some of the issues, and there frequently be people who have knowledge in one direction who will attempt to lord it over you, and there were several of us who ended up NOT buying into the various techie BIG blocker arguments in 2016/2017/2018 and still sometimes brought up more recently, so there can be value in terms of engaging in critical thinking and sometimes being able to identify when someone is trying to lord your lack of knowledge over you. and sure sometimes I am way out of my league when I make some posts in some of the more techie threads of the forum, and sure sometimes I will still attempt to read some of those threads because sometimes there still can be some useful information that I understand and some technical people do have better ways of framing matters than others and they are not necessarily trying to trick you.