I also think that his description of DCA is correct and somewhat really usable at the same time. The DCA works week during the dips because in those events we get the chance to accumulate more amount of Bitcoin with same fiat value. I also think that his DCA is too aggressive because he's spending a lot of money to buy too many Bitcoin in a short period and which is not going to be a good thing for someone who wants to accumulate a lot of Bitcoin.
You cannot really know if it too aggressive unless you know his total budget, but I do believe that the numbers are a bit unrealistic, and part of the reason that we talk about $10 per week or $100 per week is to attempt to be somewhat realistic in terms of what kind of budget that people might have. There surely are some people with higher budgets, but it is probably better to attempt to be more relatable to more people.
I know that even I talk about fuck you status being around $2 million - even though I know that some forum members might well be able to consider something like $200k as fuck you status. A $2 million investment portfolio should be able to fairly easily draw $6,666 of passive income per month, and so a $200k would ONLY be able to draw $666 per month, and surely there are forum members who consider that to be a totally acceptable amount for both their expectations of a current life style maintenance and even presuming that such amount be able to account for what they expect to be increases in their cost of living too.
Yeah, you're right the budget also plays a role to either consider it aggressive or not. There are many people who can make $10 to $100 per week for DCA purpose and that's the max they can allocate for the operation. There are surely some people with much higher budget but majority of the investors would be able to allocate $10 to $100 per week without any issues.
That's true the $2 million is going to be a really high level of status for many people, and hardly there will be those people who could accomplish that goal. Well it's also true that $200k as also a high status thing for many members of the forum because most of the users are still unable to have their hands of a whole 1 Bitcoin. I agree that everyone live their life in a different way and each person have different needs, so for someone $200k would be a fortune while for others $2 million is still a low amount.
For sure, to some extent, I don't have any problem with BTC accumulation approaches that attempt to time the BTC price in such a way to be able to get better BTC prices - however, I do consider that the very newest people in bitcoin should not be attempting to fuck around with trying to time their buys unless they really already have a pretty solid plan that also involves regularly buying no matter what the BTC price. Sure, once they get to a certain BTC accumulation level then it will become more practical and reasonable for them to try to time the BTC price dips a bit because they already have BTC in the event that they are not able to buy as much as they would like to buy on the dip, if the BTC price ends up going up, they are likely already sufficiently prepared for the BTC price to go up.. and sure, maybe they will end up kicking themselves for failure/refusal to just buy rather than trying to strategize for the next BTC price dip that may or may not end up happening.
You're right the ones who are still new in the world of Bitcoin should purchase some amount as soon as they find about it. And, there are many folds who still have nothing in their portfolio and they should also purchase some amount in Bitcoin without caring much about its price. When they get some amount in their portfolio then they should follow the dip accumulation approach as with such approach they will be able to increase their accumulation over time and they will be the ones who may always get Bitcoin at lower rates. Sometimes Bitcoin faces a sudden dip that's totally unexpected like the one it faced few days ago. In those times an investors should accumulate a lot of it by investing the money that he/she is keeping secure for such dips.
It's not guaranteed that the BTC price will dip every single month and even if the BTC prices does end up dipping, it is not guaranteed that the price will be anywhere even close to cheaper than it is now... we sometimes can get periods in which the BTC price might go up 50% or even more than 100%, but then it only dips like 10% or 20% and then goes on another upwards run. Sure maybe there will be a BIGGER correction later that goes into the 25% to 50% arena, but there is no way to really rely on such a dip taking place, and we cannot know for sure when such dip is going to happen.
If we look at our November 2022 low of $15,479, then we will see that the BTC price had doubled when it reached $31,818 ion July 13, but then our current low correction has ONLY been around 20% down to the current amount of $25,601 - but even with that, there are no guarantees in regards to whether we are going to get further dips, and the BTC price could end up going up to $35k without much if any further dip.. so in any event there can be a decent number of advantages to attempt to prepare for a variety of scenarios that you would be willing to accept without causing you to panic if you ended up overly preparing for a situation that did not end up playing out.
Well, that's true that Bitcoin's price may not face a dip every single month and yes there is no guarantee as well that the price with the dip will be cheaper than it's today, but still the one who wants to invest in it would have saved some money for that dip event and may invest it to accumulate some Bitcoin. I also agree that Bitcoin sometimes go way higher in price and the dips won't be good way to accumulate more in those times, but that can happen after a long period of bear market and in starts of the bull market. In regular times Bitcoin won't go much higher in value and a sudden dip could make someone to accumulate a lot of it.
I remember when Bitcoin dipped below $16k and many people were expecting that it would dip even below that price range, but after sometime it slowly starts gaining its price back again. Those kind of dips can happen only after some major events that take place in crypto currency world, and during those times the FTX fraud has caused the price of Bitcoin to go that low in value. We are still prone to such events and maybe in future if something like LUNA crash or FTX crash takes place in the crypto world then the Bitcoin may lose more of its current value because of being impacted by the failure of other coins or exchanges.
Even with you, SamReomo, you have been registered on the forum for long enough (a little more than 7 year anniversary, congrats) - maybe even similarly to our fearless OP (Wind_FURY).. and accordingly, even a fairly modest DCA approach of
$13 per week over the past 7 years would have gotten you to more than 1 BTC by now with a mere investment of $4,748 - yet at the same time, if you figure out what kind of strategies that you have been employing over the past 7 years, have you been able to significantly/materially beat those kinds of returns in terms of trying to strategize dips.
So yeah, more aggressive like $130 per week may well have ended up getting you to more than 10 BTC of accumulation, but if you were to have had attempted to employ a BTC accumulation strategy that was beyond your "free cashflow" then you may well have had ended up recking your self. . because you had over done it in terms of how much was available in your own budget.
You're right that I have been registered on this forum since 2016 and my 7 years are completed. Actually they were completed a few days ago, and thanks a lot for your kind words. You're very right that if I had used DCA for a least 7 years then in this day I would have accumulated 1 whole Bitcoin. But, I didn't used DCA for those years and I regret my decision. I had more than $13 per week, but I didn't thought about DCA in those days, and that's one of the biggest mistakes that I have made. But, I won't follow those ways now and will continue to accumulate more and more bitcoins during the dips. Surely, I will have some good number of bitcoins in my portfolio after a few years, and I would be using DCA plus dip buying techniques in combination. By the way, you have pointed it very right that if someone would have used DCA to $13 per week during those years would have already accumulated a Bitcoin at this date.