There is heavy instutions money waiting on 15k-20k to buy it so it's unlikely the price of btc can go lower then 15-20k more likely the 18k-20k Will hold BTC price well. But generally the 2023 will be kinda smooth year btc will stay 20k-30k price range. The next following months shows that nothing special just boring kinda sideways market for btc.
The 20k price Will be likely lowest in 2023-2024.
I can't even assimilate precisely your main point of focus here as you're giving the analysis of dip and bull at the same time giving it more confusion in knowing which exact prediction you're presenting, now should we believe that what point is suggesting more dump market to $15,000 or we should expect something higher above $30,000 between now and the end of the year, it's very important to always clarify your idea well to help others understand the direction you're coming from.