Without action prior to the sustain phase we face a drastic cliff as outlined below, please read.
Mint Phase 45,000,000 coins (72 days to 25+ years depending on votes)
Limit Phase is fixed at 56 days and will award 63,476 blocks
Sustain Phase has 10,000,576 coins and will last from 4.7 years to 38+ years (depending on votes)
All of the above is from the website:
http://heavycoin.github.io/about.html#decentralised-votingTotal Supply is said to be from 63,000,576 (12.69% premine) to 128,000,000 HVC (6.25% premine)
The math says 8,000,000 coins were premined in total.
If my understanding is correct:
During the limit phase if vote count was 1024 then 64,999,424 coins would be awarded. If vote count is 0 then 0 coins are awarded.
63,000,576 - 45,000,000 - 10,000,576 = 8,000,000 premined coins
We are currently at 544 average vote. If this stays the same going into Limit phase then 63,476 blocks * 544 = 34,530,944 coins.
34,530,944 / 56 days / 24 hours per day / 30 blocks per hour = 856.42 block reward. This obviously will not work well dropping to a block reward of at most 8 HVC in the sustain phase.
This is a very poor transition because instead of the block reward going down to prepare for the sustain phase it jumped way up making it that much harder for the coin to survive entering the sustain phase.
If the vote is at 256 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 544 = 16,249,856 coins. / 56/24/30=403.02 block reward is still way to high.
If the vote is at 100 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 100 = 6,347,600 coins. / 56/24/30=157.43 block reward.
If the vote is at 50 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 50 = 3,173,800 coins. / 56/24/30=78.71 block reward.
If the vote is at 10 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 10 = 634,760 coins. / 56/24/30=15.74 block reward.
So as you can see EVEN with a vote count as low as 10 average, going into and staying in the limit phase, the block reward will still drop by more then half going into the limit phase.
In all honesty even with a GREAT COMMUNITY RALLY I don't see how we'll get the vote down any lower (on average) then 256 which is less then half what it is now. That would have us going from over 400 HVC per block to at MOST 8 HVC in the sustain phase. This coin can't survive any type of drop like that when the sustain phase hits. It just will NOT BE PROFITABLE in any manner to mine and the network will die and thus the coin will too.
Unfortunately at present there is no motivation to down vote for miners who don't have any type of decent stake. They want more coins to sell/dump and don't care about long term value.
Carlo
Voting low extends the time we have to grow the coin. Working out a smooth transition to the sustain phase, and strong community action to get the coin accepted by merchants is what will grow the coin. But not without a little time and long term viability. If you have a better way to try and make the coin a success I'm sure the whole community is ready to hear it.