While I dont entirely agree with your prediction of a constant decline for the rest of the year, I certainly dont see a bull market happening anytime soon. Just as you said, I think the next bull market will happen right after the bitcoin halving. Perhaps a little more of institutional involvement in crypto would be very helpful too.
Why did he say that currently it is still in the decline phase? Because, so far, BTC is below 50% from latest ATH. Even though BTC and some Altcoins are starting to show recovery, we are still in a bearish phase on a trend basis. So, maybe until the end of this year, BTC still can't reach the minimum price of 40K, to see the bullish potential. Halving is a pattern that often occurs when bullish comes, but this is still limited to predictions and market speculation based on history. Will it be the same as previous years? Nothing is certain yet, because it depends on market sentiment.