I should have mentioned Surovikian taking over Wagner when I thought of it yesterday so I could do a victory lap, but I've been tied up with other things.  My read is that Wager would trust him because he is sensitive about getting people killed for no good reason.

As for Prigozion and/or the real leader of Wagner who stays in the shadows, my first guess is that this was a Russian hoax or psych job and one or both are alive and well.  Retire to hang out with Ken Lay, Epstein, etc.

My second guess is that the Russians killed them in order to take over Wagner (which they would have been setting up for a while and would be the reason why Surovikian was put in charge of getting them outfitted.)

My third guess is some Western forces got him.  If so it would probably be the Brits since they are desperate enough to try it and way to weasely to admit it.  Probably not other capable parties.  The Israelies wisely put their bets on Russia from the first day of the SMO onward as best I can tell and are setting up to be friends with the bear when the dust settles.  Or bear trainers.