Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 5 from 2 users
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Odohu
on 25/08/2023, 15:15:36 UTC
⭐ Merited by rachael9385 (4) ,JayJuanGee (1)
Well I went back to that link that you originally provided

which is this one:   https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin  **

**By the way, To get quick examples of how DCA might play out over several years, I had been using https://dcabtc.com/ and it allows comparisons of bitcoin to gold and equities... but it ONLY allows selecting 9 years at a time (can pick the start date in order to go back further than 9 years and so accumulation period would therefore select the end date but cannot do less than 6 months or even to custom select dates on both ends), so I might start to use your website a bit more, especially if I am wanting to select a time period that is more than 9 years or if there might something that dcabtc.com is not allowing me to do.
You have extensively explained DCA approach right from when I started following you. I must say the knowledge you shared are highly appreciated. I am happy to have learnt that wonderful concept that solved my emotional obstacle and gives me the calmness and confidence I needed to survive in this journey. Seeing my portfolio rise in quantity on a pee-determined rate that does not care about the market condition is something I am excited as I know for sure the future looks bright for Bitcoin.

One aspect I have not figured out is if it is possible for someone that does not have regular cash-flow pattern to apply DCA. By this, how will one be able to execute a time-bound DCA when it can happen that some months or weeks you will have huge cash flows while in some months or weeks you will not experience same. I am speaking from the angle of an entrepreneur that have money based on when he is able to secure a contract. You there are chances you cannot completely know when you will hit a jackpot. 


Let's say that he begun investing in bitcoin last August or perhaps September 1st, to make it a nice round number (date).  He started investing in such a way that he had been studying BTC for several weeks maybe even several months, but at some point near the middle of August, he decided that he had to spend some time figuring out his finances so that he would know how much that he could invest into bitcoin, and maybe he even created a one year plan.  Surely whatever he figured out in August is not going to be the end game, because when he started investing into BTC, part of his decision involved that he would continue to study it while he was investing into it, but the very first thing that he did was to figure out his own situation so that he could get started as soon as possible... setting up accounts or establishing some ways to source his coins (and maybe even looking into other ways, but at least has a place to start to buy regularly).

Let's say that this guy is in his mid to late 20s, so he had already been working for several years and he had some savings.. Not a lot, but he had saved up around $6k that he would like to put all of it into bitcoin (over the next year-ish), he has an income that is around $18k per year, so he has already saved right around 1/3 of his annual income.. which maybe we can imply that he is able to extract around 10% to 15% of his income to make it investable, and he already has somewhat of an emergency fund in place but he knows that he has to add more to it.. because it is only about 1-2 months of his income and he figures he should have more than that in his emergency fund.. all great so far... so if he has between 10% ($1,800/yr or $150/mo  $34.62/wk)  and 15% ($2,700 yr  or $225/mo, or $51.92/wk) then he likely has a cash flow expectation and he has a lump sum that he can choose how to allocate.

He might also already know that about two times per year, he has extra money that comes to him.. perhaps around $1,000 each time (maybe in December and in June), and if he is very strict with his finances, he could inject all of that extra money $1k each time into BTC.

So now I gave enough of the parameters of the hypothetical so there are various ways that we could plug all of them in.

With the initial $6k that he already has, he could choose to lump sum $2k right away and then plug $2k into DCA ($166/mo or $38.46/week) and/or and another $2k into buying on dips (has to figure out the increments and or the spread for that.. maybe $100 for 20 orders every $500 will get him down to a dip of $10k, and of course, he could spread it out more and then just add value to the buying on dip amounts from time to time as money comes in.. but he can project out his whole year for the buying on dips allocation based on what he has figured out for his budget of how much he can put into it )...

When the $1k lump sums come in, he could divide those into three also.. maybe each time he would consider them as 6 months so he has $333.33 lump sum $333.33 ($55 per month or $12.82 per week).

So he could employ these and budget them in advance and then if the numbers end up changing (such as his bonus are slightly different) or some other things change, then he can make adjustments along the way, but he could start right away with amounts that account for each of these categories, and the amount in his budget weekly ends up getting divided into DCA and a buying on dips reserve. and he had to figure out how much to allocate to each.. but he has all the numbers figure out which would be a weekly amount of about $85.90 ($34.62 + $38.46+$12.82) for the 10% scenario, and $103.20 ($51.92 + $38.46+$12.82) for the 15% scenario.  He could do 50/50 for the DCA versus buying on dip, or he could do some other amount that he might consider to be more preferable.  I would probably suggest 50/50 to get used to it and get a feel for it, and then adjust later accordance with how it is working.
Reading down more into your post, it seems you already cleared some part of my inquiries above even though there are still grey areas. I don't know if you are suggesting that a person with could just DCA any lump sum he receive if he does not have a  cash flow that is does not have a regular pattern. However, if this is not what you are implying, then I would still love to know the best method of approach for someone whose cash flow does not follow a regular pattern; how to apply DCA for such a case.