[edited out]
................By the way, I had already asserted several times and in several threads (not sure if I did it here) that when I got into bitcoin, I had hoped for at least a 6% CAGR in the long term - but I did not necessarily expect to get such 6% CAGR in the first few years of my investing into BTC. These days I use the 208-week moving average to project my BTC value (and the 208-week moving average is only at $18,500 currently), and I project an expectation that the 208-week moving average will move up at least 12% per year, and since the 208-week moving average is a lagging indicator, spot price tends to be higher than it, and the 208-week moving average tends to slope up - as well if BTC spot price starts to come close to the 208-week moving average (such as less than 12% distance) then from that information, I may well be able to project that in the future I might end up getting lower than 12% appreciation of that lagging indicator.
While I was typing this post, I did create a spreadsheet for my own information to attempt to project out DCA investing at $100 per week and with a variety of CAGR scenarios in order to attempt to project out values.. and with an anticipated 12% or to be able to customize such CAGR or amount invested. The overall structure for the spreadsheet with rows in 6-month increments for 4 years looked like this:
Start $ StartDate % gain /time Time Price/BTC #BTC$0 7/1/21 6.00% 182.6 $40,000.00 0.00000000
DCA-$100/Wk DCA/wk>>>> $100.00
Date $Value DCA-Add Price/BTC #BTC 12/30/21 $2,756 $2,756 $42,400 0.06500000
7/1/22 $5,677 $2,756 $44,944 0.12632075
12/30/22 $8,774 $2,756 $47,641 0.18417052
7/1/23 $12,056 $2,756 $50,499 0.23874578
12/31/23 $15,536 $2,756 $53,529 0.29023186
6/30/24 $19,224 $2,756 $56,741 0.33880365
12/30/24 $23,133 $2,756 $60,145 0.38462608
6/30/25 $27,277 $2,756 $63,754 0.42785479
I just received a couple of merits on this post (thanks EFS), which thereby drew my attention to this chart that I created that presumed buying $100 week of BTC and the BTC price going up on average about 12% per year.. which is surely a bit ambitious of a BTC price trajectory.. but I do not necessarily consider it to be unrealistic, surely on a longer timeline, we might end up getting some gravitation of the price towards that ambitious price trajectory.
Surely we can see from BTC's actual price performance, we have not had any kind of 12% per year, and if we would have had been
accumulating BTC at $100 per week until now, we would have invested $11,300, and we would have had stacked about 0.4145 bitcoin, which, in accordance with my chart projections, brings us nearly to the quantity of BTC that would have had been expected to be stacked by mid-2025.. , and there should not be any reason to be unhappy about those kinds of results.. including that at today's BTC prices we would be quite a bit ahead of schedule.. maybe even two years worth of BTC ahead of schedule, and right around break even in regards to the amount that we put into our whole investment into BTC that would have had started July 1, 2021.
I wonder how OP is doing? Have you been able to keep up your BTC buys?
Whenever forum members abandon these kinds of threads, there should be a bit of a presumption that they had not continued with their earlier plan and they likely fucked some things up, but hey, part of the question might be whether any of us is able to outperform a DCA approach. .in terms of ongoingly and consistently stacking sats without getting blown out of our position and while being able to keep up with enough psychological determination to be able to remain persistent... and ONLY OP would know about his personal circumstances, including sometimes our cashflows might go up or they might go down, but if we have goals to stack sats, then likely we would like to continue to figure out ways to continue to stack and maybe increase our stacking and not making up any excuses regarding why we stopped, and "if we would have" blah blah blah.. ..
Consistency and persistency and adapting to the environment remains important in when we may well have bitcoin stacking ambitions, which seems to have had been the case when OP started this thread.