Post
Topic
Board Gambling discussion
Re: La Liga (Spanish League) Prediction Thread 2023/24
by
temple
on 29/08/2023, 12:17:46 UTC
The fact that Barcelona won seems to be cool and 3 points is 3 points, but given the previous two games, I would say that this is another sign of weakness (if we are talking about the fight for the title). And with such a game (both in attack and defense), one should not count on any success in Eurocups. Maybe Xavi will be able to even out the situation, but globally I expect a repeat of previous seasons - instability that will not always end as well as today.

That's correct, the "three points is three points" talk might be true for La Liga, but when this is against the best European teams in the Champions League, I don't think that Barcelona has a realistic chance to make it to the semifinal. Maybe the quarterfinals could be possible, but the last season was a good example of what you just explained. A team like Inter Milan punishes this and doesn't lose the game like Villareal did. Both games against Cadiz and Getafe have already had some warning signals. Having one close game against an inferior team is normal, but these three games taken together aren't very promising so far.

By the way, as I expected, the bookmakers also rated this game as a minus for Barcelona and the quotes for the La Liga title shifted a little more in favor of Real Madrid. Now, according to the bookmakers, the odds of Real Madrid are 1.68 and Barcelona are 2.75. I consider this bias to be quite serious and still profitable to bet on Real (but I want to wait until September 1st to know for sure if Mbappe will come).

I don't know your stakes of course, but for me personally the odds of 1.68 wouldn't be worth tying funds to a bet that takes almost a year to clear. I get that you assessed the bias here according to your opinion and whether it is worth the bet based on the bias only instead of opportunity cost in case other bets come up with a similar bias and less time that your funds might be tied to a potential bet.

But when you talk about the bias, I would be interested in your opinion what the odds for Real Madrid and Barcelona should be? Since this whole season is still going and one factor is Mbappe, that's true, but apart from that Real Madrid could always get in trouble and maybe lose two players like they did with Courtois.

I have had a look at the Premier League and Manchester City stands at 1.45. I can't really figure out what fair odds would be, but 1.68 doesn't really feel wrong. But I agree if I had to make a bet now on either Manchester City or Real Madrid for their domestic titles, I think I would go with Real Madrid as well. I just don't think the odds are way too high because bookies also know that time is also a factor bettors pay for.