Will it take the wind out of the ETF approval announcement when it happens?
No
I'd also say no. Approvals are usually bullish for price until product launch date, while the launches themselves have always been bearish.
Look at the recent Futures/ETF based launches in Bitcoin's history:
December 2017 CME/CBOE Futures: -83%
September 2019 Bakkt Futures: -60%
October 2021: ProShares ETF -75%
November 2021: VanEck ETF -75%
Sure these ETF applications are different, as it's based on spot ETFs, but I'm not convinced that "this time will be different". At best we only see a 50% correction when price is around $50K-$60K compared to -60% to -80%, as an approval could push prices much higher in the meantime. That would also fit the current cycle with a bear market rally relief rally followed by final pre-halving correction scenario.
Remember the CME/CBOE approvals in August 2017 around $5K? Price went up 4x from there until launch date. So 2x from here doesn't seem out the question.
It's just another buy the rumour sell the news event imo, not much else in the immediate term. Ofc long-term, sure, it's bullish. No arguments there.
But...
was the Top of the 2 previous bullmarket. So seem to be quite difficult to compare with the current situation. As we are still in bear/side way market since +/- 2 years.