~snip~
It never ceases to surprise me how someone may become so lost in the fleeting hope of big win that they fail to perceive the reality. Having too much self-confidence? More like an illusion of knowledge. The majority of gamblers enter a casino with a fictitious analysis based on... what? gut feelings? Past patterns? Astrology? LOL. Why bother pretending to analyse when you're only playing for "fun"? Why ignore concrete offers if you're playing to win?.
The $200-offer scenario captures the human decision-making weakness. One must take into account both the monetary value and the potential psychological cost. If you turn down the offer, what will happen next? Enter new episode of depression? Gambling is just playing with risk. It's insane to demand certainty from it, to be direct about it. Acquire the offer. OR, don't. However, for the love of God, at least be conscious of the circus you are participating in.
Perhaps the person's level of self-confidence is so high that they feel confident they can win from gambling even though they don't have a high chance of winning. Well, that's human. They will not withstand the temptations in front of them or behind them and will take the biggest when it does not guarantee they will get the biggest. Humans will never feel enough and be satisfied with what they have got or will get, so they are still trying to pursue more. But those who play for “fun” will choose the money in front of them because it is the real thing they are ready to take.
Yes, it is a perfect psychological play by casinos to make offers to those who are easily tempted. However, unfortunately, they are not willing to take what is ready in front of them and are still waiting for a bigger payoff, which is also not guaranteed to come true. Perhaps if that happened continuously, they would get depressed and give up why they didn't take advantage of the opportunities in front of them but instead waited for something uncertain. Perhaps next time, they should take up the offer so they can experience the excitement of earning money gambling.