Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL!
by
Wind_FURY
on 08/09/2023, 07:21:16 UTC
Your cautious yet optimistic stance regarding possibility of significant increase in Bitcoin price is quite understandable. As an informed and experienced Bitcoin investor you are well aware of  that predicting future price of Bitcoin is very challenging task. Various factors, such as regulatory developments, general state of global economy and prevailing monetary policies, can impact all risky assets including Bitcoin.
If you treat Bitcoin like a treasure worth holding, your mindset will significantly change. First, you will be more focused on accumulating more of it rather than bothering about the price. Indeed, it is very emotionally draining to be worried about Bitcoin price. From personal experience, one tend to look more on the price of Bitcoin when one is so curious about quick profits and not long term HODL. On the other hand, having a futuristic mindset with Bitcoin will eliminate this burden of looking at price always because the focus will be on how to accumulate certain quantity of Bitcoin by a certain year. This is where DCA comes in and am happy a lot of people are already applying same thereby eliminating some of the psychological burden that comes with buying Bitcoin without a well-thought out plan.
Nevertheless, we can reasonably anticipate that there are favourable odds for significant price appreciation in 2024, which marks the year of Bitcoin's halving event.
The best we can do at best is to expect as it is up to the market to decide. As a believer in Bitcoin, one must have some level of faith that someday, the price will go up even though we done know when and how. Another thing is also to look at history data and correlate same with previous events and the outcome in the price. This is where the halving comes in. So, I agree with you that the halving next year necessitate optimistic anticipation of rise in price.
Personally, I don't have any problem with the idea of ongoingly looking at the BTC price and the value of your overall BTC holdings as compared to fiat, and even part of the sentiment of this thread involves considering the extent to which there might be some value in terms of trying to time dips versus just buying BTC regularly without much if any reference to the price, and I have difficulties considering that both might not be done and/or accomplished without necessarily devolving into trading practices and/or panicking based on BTC price moves.
Of course there is. I never understood why you never accepted a simple idea that to buy Bitcoin at a discount gives the buyer more sats for the bid that he/she made.

Yeah.. your head is like a concrete block that is not penetrable.

It seems that I have explained a million different ways, and nothing seems to sink in because you already have your mind made up regarding what strategy you are going to employ and your inability to understand and appreciate that a newbie coming into bitcoin is likely going to be way the fuck better off just getting started rather than trying to figure out if a BTC price dip is coming or not... and once s/he has accumulated a certain amount of BTC and learned about BTC for a while, then maybe s/he will be in a better position to either change his/her strategy to supplement with buying on dips, rather than DCA or to completely replace the DCA strategy with some buying on dips kind of a practice.. that still may or may not be a form of DCA, depending upon how it is deployed..

But in a zoomed out, low time preference context, it doesn't matter.

It might matter in the context of someone waiting around for a Dip might end up fucking himself (or psyching himself) out of buying bitcoin on a regular basis and perhaps employing more aggressive ongoing BTC buying habits.. so maybe the whimpy guy ends up strategizing and not really buying as much as the guy who just buys regularly and perhaps supplements a bit more from time to time with extra purchases on dips.  Do you need some examples, or do you just want to act like the ONLY way to go is to buy on dips based on your retroactively looking at the BTC price moves and the figuring out the points at which some hypothetical person would have bought his/her BTC?

We're here to HODL and front-run the billionaires, and in that at least we're on the same side. Cool

That seems to be true... and there are likely still at least another 10 years of front-running billionaires, even though some of them are seeming to start to "get it."... even though it is hard to know which ones of them are actually getting it rather than seeming to get it but not really getting it.   


OK, I respect your opinion, but you do you. Personally, I won't be buying ANY Bitcoin at the current price levels because due to the current macro-economic situation around the world, we could get another opportunity to buy Bitcoin with a big discount again and front-run everyone. Give it until March next year, but it could happen again before that. Probably by the end of this year?

My bids are on $20,000.
         ¯\_(ツ)_/¯