A link doesnt automatically imply a causation. Geopolitical events, technological improvements, and market sentiment can affect market movement. Your prediction about bull runs' uncertain future is correct. Even though the Bitcoin halving event and timing are known, tying it to a bull run may be too straightforward. Bitcoin is a volatile market with no algorithm or formula that can predict the future. Thus, investors should only risk what they can afford. Can you explain how buyers should prepare for these unknowns?
Being prepared to face the unknown is being prepared to withstand any risk if it comes in the future, because as you said it is also logical enough for investors to understand, where they only have to take risks based on the abilities they have. It doesn't make it forced, because this is about market conditions whose certainty is still unknown even though there are many people who already know what events can affect the market and you have also mentioned some of these things.
However, things that have been predicted can still change because as we know, price and market predictions are initial guesses from research by experts and also each person based on what they have experienced before, although there is no complete guarantee that this will happen. -Things that have happened can be repeated more easily in the market because we are always in different years with different events, even though the names for each event may not be much different.