Are you sure that we are not going to see further dips from this level? This very dip has lingered around the 26k region and from experience, when the consolidation is extended, there is always this sharp move in the opposite direction to the real major move. Going by that, I think we might see a little lower prices before the much awaited bull market.
When i consider what is a dip I think about the % diff between the last level and where it sits currently. I also look thru my dca accounting see how much I bought at that level previously. I look at some charts too and look at times it stayed at that level etc. you can never be too sure that it’s going to dip further or not however even if you get it wrong your dca will scoop it up. I don’t really get into trying to time it with ta and squiggly lines and other such rubbish. I make decision and go with it. Over time I have built up a pretty good consensus of what is a dip and what is not a dip. It’s not always right but who cares I accumulate. If you constantly second guess your decision ie you think it will go lower then you never will buy.
Comparing the present market condition to the 15-16k dip is not perfect to me because while the later happened within a very short period of time, the former is still ongoing for about two months and counting.
Look at how long it was in that dip channel at that level. When I look at my avg price on my dca accounting it’s was
2022
Aug 22k
Sep 19.3k
Oct 18.9k
Nov 17.4k
Dec 16.5k
Now when I compare this is to last two months
2023
Jul 30.3k
Aug 26.8k
Sep(mtd) 25.2k
This enough data for me to say they are similar and there is a good chance we are in another great buying opportunity. Time will tell if Oct goes lower or parity(buy more dips + dca) or up(dca)
I think JJG said this somewhere I make more money when the price goes up, so like this I’m not wishing for the price to go down but if it does I’m prepared for it. I can buy the dip and hodl
So it is best to keep an open mind and DCA is just enough for that. When price lingered around the 29k region, I was tempted to allocate all my funds then through instant execution. Am glad I did not yield to that temptation as I had to set limit orders at different lower price points of which some have been filled at lower prices. I guess that might be what is going on with you. Anyways, it your funds and your decision to make... just follow your heart.
The problem and I also had overcome this same problem is that I needed a push in the direction to decide what was a dip and what wasn’t a dip to make a call on whether to buy extra on top of my dca with a fairly good conviction when making the decision to. It’s so easy to fall into the trap of it might go lower and not buying extra and it goes up. Another trap is your dip allocation, I allocate per dip, have it set at 33% of reserve this amount is somewhat arbitrary depending on my conviction of the dip and what my data is guiding me to do. I also find I can replenish the 66% before I need it again.