As far as I know, when some big company or organization tries to enter the Bitcoin market it crashes down to give them a better opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a low price. This is pure manipulation but this has happened before.
Well, if you think that you got it figured out, then fine.. good luck with that... and if you think that you got it in the bag, then we just have to wait to see how it plays out.. and I suppose ONLY you are going to know the extent to which your orders end up getting filled, unless you want to disclose the various price points that you have your buy orders or do you employ your BTC buys manually rather than setting them in advance?
I tried to put half of my order in advance and keep half in hand in case it dips down more i will have some left in my hand to lower my average. My order is around the 20k level and if the price crash further down i will not buy any more until it touches 15k which won't happens i think. Actually, it doesn't matter what i think i just made some planning for my investment strategies and won't change it until there is some unusual scenario occurs.
That sounds good because as long as you are comfortable with setting your orders and then becoming somewhat emotionally neutral regarind whether or not they fill, then it seems that you are likely to be on the right track.
I mostly ONLY become upset if I have an order outstanding and the price moves within a few dollars (and sometimes within a few cents of filling it, and then it does not fill.. otherwise, I attempt to set my orders in such ways that I am mostly emotionally neutral about them filling or not..
Otherwise, I stand by my earlier points, that our getting all smart about setting our orders is likely more of a luxury of having had already accumulated a decent amount of BTC - and the overwhelming population are either low coiners and/or no coiner and it takes a while to get to a status of having a decently sufficiently sized BTC stash in which you are more happy for the BTC price to go up rather than down, and sure maybe there are a lot of guys (and gal) in this forum who have been stacking sats for a while, but they still may well even consider themselves to still be low coiners, so they likely have to include some form of DCA and not be fucking around too much about figuring out the price, unless maybe they are doing both.. in terms of supplementing their DCA with buying on dips.
Sure there are also likely quite few people who have some BTC and they think that they have enough, so they end up fucking around with trading it because either they are trying to get more dollars (or BTC) and they do not sufficiently calculate that they are playing with too much of their stash, and sure no problem with playing with small portions of your stash, but there are a decent amount who play with too much because they think that they can outsmart BTC's price direction, and then end up with fewer BTC because of those kinds of games than what they might have been able to get from a more straight forward DCA strategy.
Yeah, I can not resist myself from imagining someone throwing a punch at their computer screen because their order didn't fill by just a few cents. It feels like being at an auction and losing the bid to a guy for one dollar! Some people try to outsmart BTC and end up losing both sides. You can only hope your prediction is right, but there is no guarantee it will be.
You are right about the danger of overtrading. One of the classic errors that many investors have made till now is trading without a plan and getting carried away by emotions. DCA and SIP might be boring, but they get to the finish line without any drama, and I think we all like that—less drama and more bitcoins.