Guys I think I spawned a wave of newbie acct creation. See all these folks w/ 1-10 posts suddenly popping up in more frequent regularity than before..? ;o
Also Billy, don'tcha know, that the great rise from 340.. (which caught me by surprise, I had made SO much shorting dangerously, from 408, all the way down to 350's, when it showed it couldn't even climb back pathetically to 416, but then, I thought it'd keep going to 300's-320's so I re-shorted at 360..and held it far too long.. Only got convinced to go long way past that, around 460's.. =/)
..was obviously caused by some individuals/agencies enterprisingly taking the bull by the horns & asking the PBoC themselves, on Apr 10th, what exactly was really up w/ them 'hating on' & rumors of 'wanting to ban' bitcoin, to which they absolutely shocked the world (a shock that exacerbated how violent the bounce from 339/2200's was) by responding "..What? Bits of coins? Coin bit fermented tea leaves..? Ohh right, those tokens. We don't care about those, they're just an internet nerd joke play-money type-thing like collectible stamps, or antiques etc. 'Banning' something like that doesn't even enter the realm of considerations."
Then, on TOP of that, OKCoin told everyone how proud they were of their brand new plans for deploying the very first Bitcoin ATM in mainland Sinaland, along w/ some others yammering something about software Point-of-Sale 'ATM'-functionality being designed as well. So, that's what made the entirety of chinese bitcoinland to cream their pants in a collective 'Stamp-BTCe-dominating' '2H-chart-price-rise-stairway' frenzy that could not reach a zenith of relief until all the way @ 3450's.
So looking back, one can definitely attest this was not a groundless bull run. It nevertheless caused a major shift in sentiment all around, and makes it most probable that dropping below 390's again is a shrunkenly tiny possibility, while also indicating a break above 610-615 to be rather unlikely at this point, until the next major news/events are able to propel the trend beyond a ~400-600 channel in either direction.
It's entirely possible your analysis is correct and I really think the PBoC has bigger problems to worry about, but if sentiment can shift this easily, then it can also shift back this easily. Something is rotten in China and it probably has something to do with one or more of the major exchanges. Something vaguely gox-like may be brewing. It may be a false positive, but I can smell it. The volume and price movements are uncannily similar to March so far. This is my uninformed opinion and doesn't prove anything, obviously. Price movements are similar until they are not. Trends continue until they don't.
I'm not going to say "I told you so" to those who were saying we'd never see the $400s again, and I won't say "I told you so" to the $300s either if that happens. I'm just saying their are too many unknowns to justify me buying higher unless I get some compelling new information.