Of course nothing can be taken for granted. However I believe in this scenario because of especially their performance so far. They have started the Premier League really poorly. They won against Brentford the last time maybe but it was a pretty hard-fought 1-0 win. Therefore it is hard to believe in them even for achieving a good thing in the Premier League for now.
There is an example like Chelsea won this title in the 2020/21 season too while they weren't one of the favoured teams for the title. However they finished the Premier League in 4th place at the same time. I don't know if Newcastle can make that improvement.
Yes but you can't judge the group based on Newcastle alone. Look at what PSG is doing, look at how AC Milan did against Inter and look at how Dortmund is doing despite their most recent win against Freiburg, which was also a last minute win against a team that was left with 10 players after the red card.
I think if you take all these circumstances into account and the fact that all four teams are obviously not solid enough to play on their top level consistently, this group will have the least predictability in my opinion.