Hi there
hope y'll doing very well today i was just going through here and i read these discussion you guys having with each other i found it interesting so i thought i must share my experience as well. A couple of months ago i was just waiting for the BTC dip like well as i expected BTC will go for 20,000 it wouldn't reach there. we all know the aspect that we can't time the market anytime we can just make some prediction according to the previous history analysis so that's what i do....well when BTC price came to 25700 i bought some amount of BTC according to the savings i had but i didn't invest my all amount at once then i still expected btc go more down and literally it happened after that very next week BTC price came more down i was about i guess 24800 and i did more investment and seriously i found DCA as very good technique it make my whole portfolio in profite and i still waiting btc to go more down like i think it can still go to the around 23 to half of 24 thousand what you guys say about that must share you opinion with me it will add up to my knowledge and information as well Many Thanks.
Kind regards
snowpega
Good Day,
Thank you for your submission and also congratulations for choosing to invest in Bitcoin. It might just be one of your best decision you have taken.
Any approach you adopt to accumulate Bitcoin is not bad as long as it is increasing your portfolio. A lot of people are using your option of waiting for the dips to buy and since we are still in a relatively undecided market condition, they have been right buying at every dip. This will continue until we have a bull market where market might not give them the chance to buy again because dips might be rare to see.
The DCA method does not really look at price... so the option of waiting to buy at the dip does not really agree with DCA. If you are employing DCA, then waiting for the dips will not be necessary... so I guess you have some modifications to make regarding your approach so you don't miss our on major move that can start any moment.
To me, it is a bit unclear what @snowpega is doing since he seems to be DCA'ing and also buying on dips, and there is nothing wrong with that so long as the person doing the BTC accumulating is still going to be sufficiently happy with what s/he had done if the BTC price ends up not dipping down to the expected prices whether that is going into the $23-$24k range or even dipping into some kind of an area that approaches $20k per BTC.
To me it continues to seem unrealistic to be putting too many hopes into buying on further dips when we are still more than $1k below the 200-week moving average.. yet at the same time, there is nothing wrong with having some lump sum amounts that might be on the sidelines and ready to buy at various price points if the BTC price does end up dipping.. It just seems to be a common mistake for newbies to end up holding too much in reserves in order to prepare for dips that might not end up happening.. so it seems that the main solution is to think through the scenarios ..and maybe even roughly plot them out, and get to some kind of position in which you are happy with either price direction while being prepared for either..
Of course, @snowpega has been registered on the forum for a year, but we cannot necessarily presume that s/he has been accumulating BTC for that long.. but sometimes it can be helpful to figure out some of the time lines in which people had been investing and what their strategies had been in order to attempt to figure out where they might be in their BTC accumulation journey... and even the other day, I was thinking about how long it can take to get up to 1 years worth of income saved up.. 5-10 years if we are lucky, and many people end up taking longer than 10 years to get to a point in which they have 1 years income (or at least 1 year of how much it costs them to live - so their expenses) saved up (or somehow invested in ways that could be considered as quasi-liquid - even if some of the sources of savings are time-locked, like retirement accounts).
So might we assume that most people who are less than 5 years investing have not even gotten to 1 years salary saved up? and maybe I am setting the goals too high? because even a person who has 20% to 50% of his/her annual salary/expenses saved up will start to have way more flexibility as compared to someone who is just starting out, and sure there tends to be a combination of cash and BTC that could be being built up, so even if the person is not DCA'ing most of it into bitcoin, there can quite a bit of value in regards to having the fiat savings available that can be injected into bitcoin because of another fact that most people do not have a sufficient amount of an emergency fund saved up, which is enough to support themselves for 3-6 months.. if their worse case scenario ends up playing out.