Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.

Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it won’t help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.

The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try. Grin

That's ok. If the front does not collapse to Tokmak, see you there next year. However, I wonder why is the RF army building more fortifications precisely around Tokmak. Maybe they are not as well informed as you are.

Edit to add: I think they have done exactly the same I just did: click "measure distance" from the front to the centre of Tokmak. What would you say is an standard "artillery range" (hint: 20 km is less).

Tokmak is a key city, without which it is impossible to solve the main task of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to cut the land corridor to Crimea. It is not enough to put pressure from cannon artillery on Tokmak itself; you need to at least get close to it in order to start putting pressure from cannon artillery on the main transport arteries that pass through Tokmak to Berdyansk and Melitopol. That is why the Ukrainian counter-offensive is a complete failure, and local successes at Kleshcheevka and on the Vremevsky ledge are nothing more than consoling media victories that can only slightly sweeten the bitter pill of disappointment. That is why pressure on Verbovoye is a wrong turn, and the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kherson region is only to distract attention.

20 km is close in my book. If it can be reached or not before conditions are no longer suitable is a question of chances... how soon the rain comes and how heavy, if the tactic can be adapted to that weather, if Ruzzian reserves are (and some people think they are) quite depleted, a possible "goodwill gesture" by some units, if the US sends ATACAMS,...

I would give it a 50 / 50 of not as much taking Tokmak as cutting the railways & having artillery & surveillance control through the rout.

Also, I do expect more activity along the dnipro, I would not bet the house on not having a serious attempt of an assault from that direction.