It all boils down to market sentiment. Mostly it's not even the decreased supply distribution through the halving that causes market upticks — it's mostly the fact that people think they need to invest more money in the asset due to decreased bitcoin units being distributed.
This is also what makes it so dangerous, in my opinion, to assume a start of the bull with the coming halving (probably in April 2024). Everyone assumes that the halving will usher in the next run, but there is absolutely no guarantee of that, certainly not the shortage of supply of "new" Bitcoin through mining.
However, you can already see "well-known" crypto-influencers promising viewers the blue of heaven and arguing that it was the same in the past. Three cycles, where the halving has actually heralded the bull, do not allow for a guarantee for the future.