Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Topic OP
Did anyone notice this pattern?
by
elevates
on 20/09/2023, 14:16:54 UTC
I was trying to find a certain date for the actual halving event as a stupid fool. I noticed that the date changes, as it all depends on the blocks. At the moment it is due in the month of March, earlier it was in the month of May next year. The next thing I did was to check the ROI of Bitcoin after every halving. The ROI, if anyone had bought Bitcoin before 2011 was 100x approximately from 2012 to 2016. if you bought Bitcoin in 2015 it would be 7X approximately in November of 2021. My math can be wrong and I am open to criticism about it.

Continuing with what I discovered, I saw a pattern while trying to find my actual objective. It is a pattern that might determine when Bitcoin will get a new ATH.

This might sound unreal but Bitcoin takes approximately 1.3 years to get to a new ATH. if we consider the halving dates and then check the new ATH, as an average it concludes. I am not speculating anything as it is a simple calculation of the average. just take a look:

2012 halving - New ATH reached around 1 year after
2016 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after
2020 halving - New ATH reached around 1.5 years after

I know that there are multiple reasons for Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. I do understand that cannot be based on the law of averages. What do you guys think, Is the law of average work here or I am just speculating it?