For the first time since 89 (if I remember correctly the news I read this morning), United lost three games in a row, conceding more than 2+ goals in each. Obviously they are playing poorly and the goalkeeper is not even close to De Gea's level yet.
As for Bayern, what irritates me is how easily they concede goals when they are leading, this lasted all of last season and so far there has been no improvement. Yesterday Bayern had a margin of safety and they should have scored more goals. A close score should not mislead anyone.
Looking at what Manchester United did in this match, I'm honestly skeptical about them in the Champions League. Even the few goals they scored were not free from mistakes made by Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich also did the same thing, but I see them more than Manchester United. I think Manchester United's journey will not be long if they continue to play like this. I won't rule them out, but they have to improve their performance, whether it's in attack or defense, including their new goalkeeper who still makes a lot of mistakes, even though he can make some saves.
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From your words it follows that United seems to have the best chances in the Premier League (in my opinion, no). Considering that in addition to Bayern, the group also includes Galatasaray and Copenhagen, it is difficult to imagine that United will not qualify. But it is obvious that they will not take a place higher than Bayern, which means that in the 1/8 finals they will play with the team that will win their group and this may be a very strong team. United can count only on a lucky draw.