Although the reasons you've listed are important, they just scratch the surface. I like to look at the broad picture, so I have a few methods for you to consider:

Historical Trends and Cycles: If you've ever read "Guns, Germs, and Steel" , you'll understand how historical trends frequently return. The market for cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, is not excluded. You can predict likely future moves by looking at historical trends.

External Stimuli: Eenvironmental influences were crucial in the evolution of society, and the same is true here. Beware of laws or world events that may have a significant impact on the value of bitcoin.

Technological Development: The speed of technological development can be compared to the rate at which societies succeeded or failed. Watch developments in blockchain and cryptocurrency platforms closely since they have a direct impact on the price and usefulness of Bitcoin.

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Keep these in mind, and you'll soon discover that items 2 and 3 on your list start to unfold more predictably in front of your eyes. Explore more, look for trends, and let history inform your choices in the future.