I'm a pleb like most of you, and I too have, many times, become pesimistic about the economy in general and in what's about to come. But has anyone ever considered that,
- The economy is not going to crash into a recession
- That there will be an actual soft landing
- That the Russia - Ukraine war will not escalate into a European war
- That Gensler CAN'T truly ban crypto
- Institutional investors will come back and take Bitcoin to six digits
I'm probably missing more narratives, but you get the idea.
The prevailing state of economy is understandable and concerning for all of us, however world has learned bitter lessons from past recessions, therefore FED and central banks all over the world are doing all they can to avert risk of recession.
Actually, they're not. The Federal Reserve's mandate is price stability = control inflation, and although Jerome Powell has always said in his speeches that a "soft landing" is still possible, I believe he knows that he can't have both a soft landing and price stability. The economy needs a "reset", therefore a recession must happen.
The central banks are equipped with sufficient tools/options, such as quantitative easing (QE) and buying back securities to address many economic challenges including inflation and threat of recession.
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and other Central Banks in regions where inflation is high CANNOT pivot to Quantitative Easing because simply inflation is high. The Central Banks are not in control, inflation is.
Looking ahead, the future outlook of Bitcoin is promising, as major institutions like BlackRock are showing their interest by submitting ETF requests. Moreover, awareness about its technology is spreading worldwide at a fast pace.
The only debate to buy Bitcoin at current price levels during a recessionary period is IF there's Stagflation.