But perhaps the clear proof of what is happening, and that is actually reality, is that Ruzzia has stopped any minimally significant gain while Ukraine is taking territory. That is what is happening "in real life".
According to New York Times (famous for its pro-Russia stance) since Ukraine counteroffensive started, Russia took 860 square kilometers, and
Ukraine took 370 square kilometers.
At that rate, what your math says, when will Ukraine take back all territory?