I think we should stop treating bitcoin as a repeating bubble, as it's (ironically) historically proved to be false. I mean, there was price rising which occurred around halving epochs, but even they appear to be less accurate every time. There were Octobers that Bitcoin experienced price growth, and Octobers in which it was as if it celebrated Halloween.
And straight forward answer to your question is, that we should not only depend on the fundamental Analysis (FA) because Technical analysis (TA) is also very important.
Can you please explain me how given as input the past Octobers, you can work out the probabilities of repetition? How can TA or FA make you feel more confident that it will (not) repeat?