The bear on the bench,
Made me keep my Bitcoin Cash,
Until I saw sense.
You mean picnic table bear?
Gosh he can be persuasive.
[edited out]
If I'm not wrong then we are still at least 10-14 months away from the next bull run. Although, the halving event will take within next 7-8 months but still the bull run may need some more time to start. I'm in firm belief that history will repeat itself once again this time.
Of course, no bull run is guaranteed, but when they do end up happening, there does seem to tend to be a kind of rampening up of the process in such a way that it starts out slowly and then gets to be more and more and more, but sometimes even those kinds of rampening ups can become unclear.. take the April to June 2019 run for example... so the UPs and downs can sometimes play out weirdly... or in such a way that the pattern, if any, is not completely clear.
If we end up with a bullrun this time, then surely it will end up becoming easier to explain it after it happens, and I am not even saying that the explanations that will end up coming out will be consistent, and surely some explanations are more believable than others... .
Sometimes it might not be that important to explain why bitcoin did what it did, even though some people seem to have better ideas regarding what it did than others, so that likely gives better ideas for where we might be going too.. .even though many of us recognize and appreciate that ONLY so much weight can be given to historical price movements in regards to being able to get some ideas for what might be in store in the future.. .and surely dangerous to be putting too many eggs (or hopes) into one basket (one view of what might end up happening, when it hasn't happened, yet).
I highly agree with you that the bull run isn't a guaranteed event but it's our expectations that it will happen. Yeah, in the initial stage the bull run starts with slow pumps but over time it gets more intense. I also agree that sometimes we really can't detect the initial stages of a bull run because the ups and downs are so unpredictable in the initial stages. I believe this time something will also trigger the bull run to intense levels. The previous bull run began its intense levels in November-December 2019 and initially it started around April to June 2019 like you said.
Yes, if we see the next bull run then it will be easier for us to say something about it. But, surely someone of the expectations will be met once the bull run starts. I believe that this bull run will help Bitcoin and the whole crypto-market if it happens.
Those who have good ideas about Bitcoin and its price levels are among the learned ones I guess because they really know the importance of Bitcoin and appreciate every move of Bitcoin with positive mindset. The Bitcoin has made history for first time when its price went to $1k plus in 2013 ATH, and it made history again when its price went to $19k plus during 2017 ATH, and it made history once again when its price went to $68k plus during 2022 ATH, and now it will make another history when its price moves to ATH in next 2 years with intense bull run. I expect that in October-December 2025 Bitcoin's ATH will take place. I may be wrong but my expectations are really positive about it.