I think the first guy might have a chance at recovering his Bitcoin though it looks very slim. Since there are two attempts left, we never can tell he might get lucky and finally unlocks it. As for the second guy, I don't think he has a chance at getting back his lost Bitcoin. Even if he finally gets the approval from the city council to dig the landfill, there's the possibility that he might not find the hard drive there. Both of them didn't believe in Bitcoin initially that's why they find themselves at their current predicament. So the take home from both stories is that whatever investment we've, no matter how small the value is, we should guide it jealously.