.../Case: guy 1, guy 2/::::
In the first case, it is somewhat random that you are naming him specifically, but it is surely the case that is repeated the most, and of those who disclose it, imagining the amount of bitcoin lost is like thinking about what price bitcoin could be tomorrow at 00: 00:00 you can only be close to the amount.
The second case I have followed more closely, the last I heard is that the guy plans to sue the mayor's office, who is in charge of issuing the permit.
If we analyze the possibilities of both, the first would have it better, we see that neither has it, but in the comparison in the "physiological" analysis (laughs) of what was stated in your OP, the probabilities are better for the first case, in which Second, it is very possible, in fact it is a 99% certainty, that the hard drive is not in good condition.
In the case of the landfill, letting them sift through the garbage, it would be interesting for the "archeology" of hard drives to demonstrate something before they disappear.
I don't know, they let billionaires play with space rockets and they don't let a guy dig through the trash and find nothing of value.