Quote from: ginsan on October 11, 2023, 08:40:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 06, 2023, 04:21:22 AM

Well yeah.. you can just keep plugging away, so each person is going to have differing goals.. and so maybe since you have been in bitcoin longer, you might have had been able to accumulate more bitcoin than some others who are brand new to bitcoin, and some guys might consider that they would like to get to 2 BTC in the next 10 years.. and so along the way they might have several targets, such as first reaching 1 million satoshis.. then reaching 21 million, then reaching 50 million.. and then 1 BTC.. and then 1.5 BTC and etc, etc. etc...

I want to stay in the circle of investing in Bitcoin and to be honest I haven't used Bitcoin since (eg 2013). I started in 2016 and from 2017 until now, even at that time there was no strong initiative for me to withhold in the long term because I still had minimal knowledge about Bitcoin. (meaning I only bought Bitcoin and sold again when I made a profit, but the results were zero big because the money was used up in vain because of other things.

I mentioned this dynamic in another one of my recent posts in which persons are tending to see bitcoin as a kind of trade in which they can short-term increase their dollars/fiat.. so it may not even matter very much what you ended up spending your dollars/fiat upon because you end up losing out on opportunties in which BTC prices stairstep upwardly, and then, even if they correct back down, they do not correct back down in such a way that you well ever be able to buy back as many BTC as you had sold at various points when the BTC price was going up. So yeah, it does make it worse if you had ended up spending that money on consumption goods rather than just hanging onto it or investing it (temporarily) into something else that you can convert back into cash.

So, hopefully you are able to figure out some kind of way to learn a lesson from that situation, and to not get so caught up upon the short-term dollar value of your bitcoin holdings whether they are in profits or if your bitcoin holdings are in the red. If you end up learning a lesson that you figure out ways to mostly stack your sats and ongoingly pursue that by mostly engaging in various ways to buy BTC and keep building your quantity, then even if the dollar value of your BTC holdings goes up and down, you are likely going to end up being much better off in the long term.. including if you are able to figure out buying extra on dips.. and sometimes it can be real difficult to put aside money to buy extra on dips, then in that sense, the even better strategy would be to engage in ongoing purchasing of BTC.. no matter the price.. while maybe even establishing some BTC stacking goals.. and of course, your BTC stacking goals are going to need to be individually tailored.

Quote from: ginsan on October 11, 2023, 08:40:38 PM

But after I followed a lot of developments in the Bitcoin discussion, I kind of want to holding it for a long time and buying gradually using the DCA method. Various targets might be included in my investment planning, such as 1 BTC a year if it is achieved or 0.5 BTC per year. Planning like that is good enough to implement because with this target we can be confident and full of enthusiasm to be able to achieve it earlier with the aggressive level that we can do.

Maybe it is not really good to talk about specific quantities in the sense of your personal goals, yet of course, if you are able to figure out ways to try to stack a certain quantity of BTC.. and we could use 1 BTC as a kind of hypothetical, so at current prices ($26,800-ish) that would be a bit more than $500 per week (52 weeks in a year).. so that is a pretty high dollar amount to be intending to consistently put aside for aspirational purposes.. because if the BTC price doubles (which would be around $54k - which surely is no unrealistic) then your stacking goal doubles in terms of its dollar values, and surely you have to have a pretty great cushion of extra dollar value if you might be thinking that your aspirations are so high.. and you might want to think of these matters more realistically.

Yeah, sure I just spent time suggesting that each of us should have goals to stack as many BTC as we can and maybe even having target quantities of BTC that we want to try to reach within certain timelines, but if our income (and even expenses) is largely in terms of dollars (or other fiat), then we likely need to attempt to tailor the amount that we want to put into bitcoin in terms of how much is going to be our discretionary income which is more likely in terms of dollars/fiat rather than bitcoin.. but we can also keep in the back of our mind certain kinds of threshold quantities of BTC that we think that we might need but we are not really going to be able to exactly know some of the specifics in terms of BTC.. except that if we keep buying we can figure that our BTC quantity is going to keep growing and we can likely make a variety of projections regarding how many BTC that we might need for certain timelines.

I had already outlined my own ideas of how many BTC it takes to get to a presumptive fuck you status of $2 million.. and of course, these numbers could be tailored and even the projections could use differing ways of estimating the value and/or prices of BTC.

Quote from: ginsan on October 11, 2023, 08:40:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 06, 2023, 04:21:22 AM

so like you mentioned, there could be times in your life where you end up getting some extra cash come your way.. such as $2k that you did not expect, and maybe you decide you are going to use $1,200 to buy bitcoin and then you have some other personal plans for the other $800.. but your level of aggressiveness and consistency can pay off, and if you clearly consider yourself in an accumulation phase, then you should not be wanting to engage in behaviors that might be screwing up your plan.. but you also don't want to act so aggressively that you have not adequately planned various expenses in your life.

Of course, every time you work, you will definitely get additional money given by company management if a company gets bigger profits every year, so we as employees might get a bonus which we can maximize to buy BTC.

Yes. one of the great things about bonus as a category to consider is that we might be able to presume that we already have our regular expenses covered, so there could be some possibility that the bonus is not going to be needed for anything else... Yet, for sure people are going to vary regarding the extent to which they might count on their bonuses in order to pay for some of their expenses and/or sometimes they might engage in a bit of sloppy accounting for their own finances so they end up needing their bonuses in order to bail them out of the bad situations in which they had placed themselves.

Quote from: ginsan on October 11, 2023, 08:40:38 PM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 06, 2023, 04:21:22 AM

Another thing with bitcoin price dynamics, the longer that you are in bitcoin, and if you are able to exercise prudent and reasonable practices, then you can surely engage in practices of buying on the dip or even shaving off a little bit of bitcoin at various points in which the BTC price rips UPwardly a lot.. and sure the BTC price might not correct back down, but if you figure out how to sell small amounts of BTC, then you should not necessarily be concerned if you ended up being correct or not about anticipating a correction.. and surely it is not easy to get ahead of the BTC price and that is frequently why some guys will refuse to sell any BTC at all while they are in their accumulation phase until they get to a certain level of profits and also a certain level of accumulation... so sometimes any sales of BTC will end up falling into a category of spend and replace within a fairly short period of time.

The opportunity to buy wisely, of course, when prices fall. Yes, sometimes the moment is missed for us because we don't have the funds available to buy at a sudden drop in price.

Yes. It probably takes a little bit of practice to figure out how much to ongoingly continue to buy, while at the same time potentially holding a little bit in reserve and even allowing that reserve fund to grow so that if there is a dip, then some money would be available, while at the same time, there are ways to already roughly structure a certain quantity of reserve funds to spread it out at various places..

for example, let's say that you are able to buy $200 per week, but you decide to ONLY buy $100 per week and to put the other $100 into your reserve fund. You have to be comfortable that the price might be going up rather than down and the building of your reserve fund is not going to cause you to have regrets if the price goes up and you had not used your reserve fund to buy BTC... so maybe after some time your reserve fund has grown to $1k or $2k, so then maybe you place some BTC orders at various strategic places that may or may not end up getting filled.. so you have buy orders every $1k starting at $25,200-ish.. and so if you ONLY have $1k in your reserve fund, then maybe you are ONLY able to buy $250 each $1k that the price drops down to $21,200.. so it is up to you how much to place in each buy order, how large are your buy increments and how far you want your buy orders to go before you run out of money to buy on the dips... dips that may or may not end up happening.

Quote from: ginsan on October 11, 2023, 08:40:38 PM

At the same time we only make purchases according to the planning in the Strategy stage that we do with DCA. In fact, of course it makes sense if we make a trade that buys when the price goes down and takes profit when the price goes up, but this pattern is only to be played for the short term, not the long term. Like what you have done where you have held BTC from 2013 until now.

You do not necessarily need to take profits when the BTC price goes up, and if you do decide to take profits when the BTC price goes up, you can set your level of "profit taking" to be such a small percentage of your overall BTC holdings that you are not really taking very many profits and you will not get worried if the BTC price keeps going up. One of the problems with taking profits when the BTC price goes up is that you might start to feel that you are spinning your wheels and even engaging in fruitless transactions, especially if you still might be in your early BTC accumulation stages.

So maybe even in your case when you are saying that you already had a problem with selling too much of your BTC investment and that you have had those kinds of issues in the past, it may well be better to just stop completely with the selling and just focus on how much you can buy and various points to buy... and of course, you have to make those kinds of choices for yourself, yet it seems to me that people get distracted from their main accumulation goals when they try to mix selling in there as a supplemental means to attempt to acquire more BTC, when they probably would be way better off just ongoingly buying rather than messing around with selling any BTC for the purpose of acquiring more BTC.

On the other hand, don't get me wrong.. once you reached a quantity of BTC that you think is enough into the future. Let's say that you believe that you need 5 BTC by 2032 - which is somewhat consistent with my chart, and so maybe you end up reaching somewhere around 9 BTC in 2026.. so in that sense you have already overly accumulated, and you have a bit of a luxury to have an extra 4 BTC.. so in that sense you might be able to create systems in which you can sell some of your extra BTC when the price goes up and then buy them back when (or if) the BTC price goes down, but you can also structure your situation in such a way that you make sure that you always have at least 5 BTC, and maybe even you want to make sure that you always have a cushion in their so whatever you are doing and planning to do would make sure that you don't go below 7 BTC... so if you have 2 extra BTC to play with, so you might structure your sells to sell 0.05 BTC every time the BTC price goes up $5k or $10k or whatever, it will depend upon where we are at with the BTC at the time that you might start to employ such a strategy (after you come to such a determination that you have more than enough BTC in terms of your own goals and how you envision how you would like to plan your future involving BTC), so with such a projection, you could already see how much BTC you would be selling at various points in time as the BTC price is going up.

Quote from: JayJuanGee on June 14, 2022, 10:59:14 PM

I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan