Was announced that they gonna fight as middleweights, not welterweights? I think bookies give Usman very low value. 1) he had 5 title defenses 2) he was winning that fight when he has lost his title 3) he is a wrestler also 4) he has one of the best striking coaches. What we got from Chimaev: 1) strength 2) self confidence 3) wrestling. But that self confidence played bad when Burns started to land punches in exchanges. Where strength is, there is also stamina nearby. I would value Usman for around 2.00 honestly and give Chimaev 1.40-1.50 only due to his series of wins and hype. In fact, I would not be surprised if Usman wins.
Actually I favor Usman but if it turns out to be middlewight then I can't place my bet on Usman. I agree with all the facts you have mentioned regarding Usman's quality but the problem is the same as Volk. Moving up to class is not too difficult, especially since Usman really looks like a Middleweight man. But Chimaev is a big guy and looks like he has almost the same natural weight as a light heavyweight. I think it will be a tough fight for Usman.