Sure there is a problem with people who sold on the way down, but that does not seem to be the crux of the main kinds of problems that are likely to afflict people who are fucking around with either selling too much bitcoin too soon as BTC prices are going up and even sometimes either failing to continue to DCA, stopping their DCA or cutting back on their DCA because they are trying to play UP and down waves that may well not end up taking place in such amounts that allow them to get a sufficient amount of advantage from those kinds of plays to make them worth their efforts when maybe they just need to continue accumulating BTC without trying to play the waves.
Maybe it's quite difficult to explain because those who sell Bitcoin at low prices definitely have problems in the investment they make, such as fear that the price will fall further and there is also no confidence for them to hold it for the long term. If we look at the period last year where the price of BTC fell quite significantly to the $15k price level. Of course we see many people selling their BTC at that time and of course we don't know the reason they sold BTC at such a low price.
However, we as holder, we think they made a mistake by selling at a low price because if they waited a little longer, maybe they could get a better profit from the decision they made. Apart from that, if they play in the waves, the risk they take may be greater if the plans they have made end in failure.
Yes.. a lot of people have this issue, and maybe they have to figure out some kind of a way to invest less and in an ongoing kind of way in order that they recognize and appreciate BTC price dips as opportunties to buy more rather than either lessening their position or stopping their DCA (or their regular buying) right during a time frame in which they should be attempting to remain consistent and persistent in their buys.
And similar things surely may well be happening currently, when guys start to think too much in terms of the dollars that they could get by selling now, and it is really hard to know if the BTC price isn't going to keep going up and make them regret their decision.. so it is difficult to hand-hold all of the people and each person has to kind of figure out these matters for themselves, and sometimes, we can see really seemingly smart people doing dumb things when it comes to their finances, and part of the reason is because they have never really been able to live with a kind of deferred gratification mentality that they can cause to last for years and years.
Whether we suggest that the rich people (institutions) are buying all of the bitcoin or if we might have some other reason(s) about why the BTC price is going up, historically, there have been several instances in which the BTC price moved upwardly out of an historical range that it had been, but then thereafter, never did return to that previous price range, and people who had been delaying in their buying of BTC, or waiting for lower BTC prices prior to buying, ended up looking foolish in retrospect. So yeah, we have had right around 18 months to be buying BTC below $35k... so how much longer is it going to last? We cannot be sure. Are there going to be further dips below $30k? We cannot be sure.
The position that the bitcoin price is heading to, is what many of us don't know whether it will keep rising above $33k or fall below $33k. Historically, the month of October always has bitcoin rise in price, which it finally did, after seeing it fluctuate around $27k - $28k for weeks.
The month of November will be in a week and we don't know what bitcoin price would be by then. But I believe that the price of bitcoin will fluctuate at a higher price of $35k - $38k in November
I doubt that the price dynamics of bitcoin gives too many fucks about what month it happens to be. .and yeah sometimes there are various macro-factor forces that are working on pushing bitcoin's prices during certain months, but there is a lot more going on in bitcoin besides trying to figure out what it may or may not do based on what month of the year we might be in.