According to my experience I can say, that every cycle is unique. Yes, history may help you to understand the general behaviour of the market during different phases of bear market or bull market, but always small details, some nuances bring new unexpected factors which might change price movements and trend significantly.
Going back to the black swans. I think that COVID had bigger impact on the global economy, and as a result on the market, than FTX crash, but now situation is even better for black swans, because we have many variables like, war in Israel, war in Ukraine, bad economic conditions in top countries etc. Therefore significant changes in those things might have huge impact on the market, or we even might see new conflict, new pandemic etc, loads of space for black swans. I believe that we didn't see the bottom of the market and it's too early for the bull market, but probably closer to 2025 things will go better. Just my opinion. But I am glad to be wrong and see new ATH
Going back to the black swans. I think that COVID had bigger impact on the global economy, and as a result on the market, than FTX crash, but now situation is even better for black swans, because we have many variables like, war in Israel, war in Ukraine, bad economic conditions in top countries etc. Therefore significant changes in those things might have huge impact on the market, or we even might see new conflict, new pandemic etc, loads of space for black swans. I believe that we didn't see the bottom of the market and it's too early for the bull market, but probably closer to 2025 things will go better. Just my opinion. But I am glad to be wrong and see new ATH