[...]
focusing on supply only as if it is the reason for the price increase is wrong thinking.
That is indeed right.
Bitcoin's price is influenced by a multitude of factors not only the supply --it only contributes to the price increase but it won't work alone.
However --I cannot blame people for expecting that there is a price increase right after halving comes because it was proven by previous years and this was the most anticipated moment by bitcoin enthusiasts which is really happening.